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06.08 - Battle of Britain & tariffs

25.07.2019 small


LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's central scenario is a no-deal Brexit and he has no intention of renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement, European diplomats were quoted as telling The Guardian newspaper.

“It was clear UK does not have another plan,” the newspaper quoted a senior EU diplomat after a meeting between David Frost, the government’s new chief Europe adviser and EU diplomats.


“No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan," the diplomat was quoted as saying. "A no-deal now appears to be the UK government’s central scenario.”

"In light of growing trade policy risks, market expectations for much deeper rate cuts, and an increase in global risk related to the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, we now expect a third 25-basis-point rate cut in October, for a total of 75 basis point of cuts," economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note.

Goldman sees a 75% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September, a 15% chance of a 50-basis-point cut and a 10% chance of no cut.

For the October meeting, the bank sees see a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, a 10% chance of a 50-basis-point cut and a 40% chance of no cut.

"By the December meeting, we think inflation numbers running at roughly 2% will lead the Fed to stop cutting," Goldman’s economists wrote."